Forecasting the Unpredictable: A Review of Forecasts on Terrorism 2000 - 2012

In this ICCT Research Paper, Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker reviews and analyses over 60 publications that attempt to predict the future of terrorism. The Paper aims to provide a general review of publications on the future of terrorism by academics, think tanks and government agencies over the past ten years. It seeks to answer several questions including, whether we know substantially more about terrorism today than back in 2001 or 2004? Some authors believe that improvements have been made in the study of terrorism, but what about our skills and efforts to improve foresight and to know whether some development or group is a threat or not? The paper concludes with several recommendations to improve the quality of foresight studies using new and innovative research methods. The Paper also includes a comprehensive appendix categorising and summarising all of the publications reviewed.

Read the Research Paper.

How to cite: Bakker, E. "Forecasting the Unpredictable: A Review of Forecasts on Terrorism 2000-2012", The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - The Hague 3, no. 6 (2012).

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.19165/2012.1.06