Future Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Trends
At the beginning of March 2012, ICCT began a project to look into future trends and scenario-development relating to terrorism and counter-terrorism, featuring innovative thinkers and future analysts.
By utilising a knowledge pool outside of the established counter-terrorism community and security experts, the aim and hope of this project is to provide fresh perspectives on the future of (counter-)terrorism. The project is based on an ICCT Research Paper by Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker, published in July 2012, that provides an overview of recent (counter)-terrorism future foresight studies and their results. Subsequently, this paper and a survey will be disseminated amongst a broad audience to receive feedback to help inform our knowledge of future trends in terrorism.
A Review of Forecasts on Terrorism 2000 - 2012
In this ICCT Research Paper, Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker reviews and analyses over 60 publications that attempt to predict the future of terrorism. The Paper aims to provide a general review of publications on the future of terrorism by academics, think tanks, and government agencies over the past ten years. It seeks to answer several questions, including whether we know substantially more about terrorism today than back in 2001 or 2004? Some authors believe that improvements have been made in the study of terrorism, but what about our skills and efforts to improve foresight and to know whether some development or group is a threat or not? The Paper concludes with several recommendations to improve the quality of foresight studies using new and innovative research methods. The Paper also includes a comprehensive appendix categorising and summarising all of the publications reviewed.
This project addresses the following topics:
Monitoring & Evaluation