The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the widest regional focus of ICCT’s research, publications, consultations and capacity building activities. ICCT’s work here focuses on the range of security issues caused by the instability in the region, including topics such as foreign fighters and various terrorist organisations active in the region, to the role of women, strengthening the rule of law and countering religious extremism.
The Demise of the Islamic State and the Fate of Its Western Foreign Fighters: Six Things to Consider
In this Policy Brief, Dr. Lorne L. Dawson asks: with the military defeat of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, what will become of the remaining fighters? Will IS remain a significant terrorist threat, especially outside of Syria and Iraq? And, how will the demise of IS affect the future of jihadism in general?
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In this Policy Brief, Dr. Lorne L. Dawson asks: with the military defeat of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, what will become of the remaining fighters? Will IS remain a significant terrorist threat, especially outside of Syria and Iraq? And, how will the demise of IS affect the future of jihadism in general?
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In this Research Paper, Asaad Almohammad uses a unique data-set made up of interviews and naturalistic observations from ISIS-held territories in Syria to explore the process of child recruitment and deployment.
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Uighurs, specifically individuals of Turkic decent from China’s northwest province of Xinjiang, have become a noticeable part of the constellation of globally active jihadist terror groups. This Policy Brief explores the scope and scale of Uighur Foreign Fighters (UFF) activity in various locations, its implications and how their participation in global jihadist groups may evolve.
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In ICCT's latest Policy Brief, Kiriloi Ingram analyses how IS recruits Western women through a detailed qualitative narrative analysis of the contents of all fifteen issues of a Dabiq magazine. Ingram argues that counter-terrorism strategic communications must be paired with community based initiatives.
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In this Perspective, ICCT Associate Fellow, Craig Whiteside, analyses the effectiveness of Iraq's Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) in countering IS. He aims to find out to what extent CTS still possesses reasonable capacity to strategise further counter-terrorism acts in the post-caliphate fight against IS.
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In this Research Paper, Liesbeth van der Heide and Jip Geenen assess what sets young or juvenile Islamic State (IS) returnees apart from adult returnees or young criminals and discuss the potential for rehabilitation.
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Craig Whiteside examines how counterinsurgency tactics such as population expulsions, extrajudicial killings and mass incarceration, currently being used by the Iraqi government’s security forces, could impact on the future return of another “Islamic State” organisation.
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With the defeat in Mosul and the noose tightening around IS' stronghold in Raqqa, the tide has begun to reverse and the steady trickle of returnees is beginning to pick up pace. This Perspective looks at ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ approaches to dealing with them.
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In this Perspective, Yousif Kalian and Omar Alhashani analyse the narrative propagated by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) and argue that, despite the image of unity they project at the moment, the PMUs may shift towards a more sectarian outlook to remain relevant in Iraq's political future.
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James Garrison’s Research Paper examines the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Unit’s (PMU) messaging on the organisation’s website and social media platforms to develop a more nuanced understanding of the PMU’s outlook, both present and future.
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As the battle for Mosul rages, the West faces a key turning point in the struggle against the so-called Islamic State (IS). The strategic choices made in the coming months to counter the risk posed by IS are likely to have ramifications that will be felt – good or bad – for years to come. As such it is an apt time to reflect on the lessons learned from past mistakes.
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Nine months after the downing of the Russian A321 civilian aircraft, Metrojet flight 9268, in the Sinai Peninsula, Egyptian authorities still need to address the challenges relating to the vulnerability of airport facilities and to managing the fear of the traveling public.
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After years of rumours, Syrian jihadist group Jabhat al Nusra is expected to sever its longstanding affiliation with al Qaeda at any moment. ICCT Associate Fellow J.M. Berger analyses the implications of the impending split on the future evolution of jihadist ideology and strategy.
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This Research Paper explores and questions some assumed causal links between terrorism on the one hand and (forced and irregular) migration on the other. It also offers recommendations that can go some way towards disentangling the issues of (refugee) migration and terrorism.
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Analysing the cases of Libya, Afghanistan and Mali, these three Reports assess how military interventions can best prepare the ground for an effective long-term counter-terrorism policy.
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This Research Paper analyses the development of militancy in Egypt's North Sinai governorate, focusing in particular on Ansar Bayt al Maqdis/Wilayat Sinai and how it has changed from the 2011 uprising to the present day.
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This Research Paper aims to analyse in depth the global propaganda strategy of the so-called “Islamic State” by looking at the methods through which this grand strategy is carried out as well as its objectives.
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Report on the workshop on effective implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions 1624 (2005) and 2178 (2014) that took place in Tunisia in November 2015. This workshop was convened by ICCT, UN CTED and HSC.
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In this Research Paper, ICCT Research Fellow Dr. Alex P. Schmid analyses the widely diverging foreign fighter estimates. Having identified push and pull as well as resilience factors that facilitate or inhibit young Muslims joining ISIS, he argues that stopping them from departing to Syria is not enough; political solutions have to be sought.
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New Report: From 6 to 7 October 2015, the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) and Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ convened a NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Brussels. This workshop was titled ‘(Counter-)terrorism in the post-Arab Spring context’ and supported by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme.
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In this Policy Brief, experts of ICCT and Clingendael shed light on some of the pressing questions that currently take central stage in the debates following the Paris attacks.
In this Op-Ed, ICCT Research Fellow Dr. Alastair Reed outlines three potential responses that the so-called "Islamic State" may want to provoke with the Paris attacks.
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In this Op-Ed, ICCT Director Mark Singleton elaborates on how to read into the assumed bombing of the Russian Metrojet 9628 flight by the Sinai franchise of the so-called "Islamic State" on 31 October 2015.
Read moreIn this Policy Brief, Dr. Alex P. Schmid discusses various definitions of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) by disaggregating the “foreign”, “terrorist” and “fighters” elements of the UN Security Council definition in resolution 2178 (2014). Subsequently, an attempt is made to bring structure to the widely diverging estimates of the numbers of foreign fighters and their origins.
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In this Research Paper, Dr. Isabelle Duyvesteyn and Bram Peeters study seven conflicts that in the past 35 years have triggered Muslims worldwide to leave their home country and become a so-called foreign fighter.
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In this Policy Brief, Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker and Peter Grol studied several cases of potential foreign fighters. These observations form the basis of policy suggestions that could contribute to the prevention policy within the framework of the “Comprehensive Action Programme to Combat Jihadism” of the Dutch government.
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Dr. Alex Schmid identifies a dozen narrative themes of ISIS and discusses them from different angles in an attempt to show vulnerabilities and point the way towards developing convincing counter-arguments.
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In this Policy Brief, Dr. Alastair Reed, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn and Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker look at the different pathways foreign fighters could take once they have arrived in Syria or Iraq.
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The number of young Western women travelling abroad to join the "Islamic State" (IS) continues to increase. However, little is known about these women, including their motivations and roles within organisations such as IS. This Background Note provides preliminary answers and explain what is known so far.
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In this Commentary Dr. Christophe Paulussen gives a quick snap-shot of the foreign fighters phenomenon, which is a complex and multi-faceted issue.
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In this Commentary, Ms. Floor El Kamouni-Janssen and Ms. Iba Abdo discuss the complex situation in Libya.
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In this opinion piece, Erwin van Veen and Iba Abdo analyse the religious credibility and message of the "Islamic State".
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This Research Paper provides a detailed examination of the armed conflict in Libya between the Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn military coalitions.
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Associate Fellow Peter Knoope discusses whether the "Islamic State" group (IS) represents a new form of terrorism, one that deviates from previous terrorist organisations.
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Peter Knoope discusses the potentially long term involvement of Europe in the complex conflict in Syria and Iraq.
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This Commentary tests the validity of the specific US self-defence arguments against the Khorasan group in Syria, examining both Article 51 of the UN Charter and customary international law on this issue.
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This Commentary reviews the new UN Security Council Resolution 2178 (2014) on foreign terrorist fighters.
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The "Islamic State" (IS), with its violent attacks, strong uprise and even stronger media campaign, shows the need for an effective counter-narrative strategy to prevent the spread of violent extremism and radicalisation.
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In this Background Note, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn and Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker investigate three historical cases of foreign fighting: Afghanistan (1980s), Bosnia (1990s) and Somalia (2000s).
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In this Policy Brief, Research Fellow Seran de Leede examines the position of women in Afghanistan towards the Taliban to a better understanding of the role of women in (countering) political violence in Afghanistan.
Read moreThis Commentary argues that the problem of returning foreign fighters to Europe will only increase and policymakers should look towards civil society and local communities for solutions.
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This Research Paper analyses the current threat emanating from the Sinai Peninsula by mapping the various violent actors and their international connections.
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This Research Paper analyses the likely future of the conflict between the most significant salafi jihadist group in the country, Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, and the Tunisian state.
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In this Research Paper efforts by governments and non-governmental bodies to challenge al Qaeda's narrative are discussed by Research Fellow Dr. Alex P. Schmid .
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The increasing amount of foreign fighters brings the possibility that returnees have radicalised which makes them a potential threat.
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A court in The Netherlands recently convicted two men who wanted to travel to Syria to join the jihad. This Commentary analyses the two judgements and their wider implications.
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Intelligence information about Al Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) caused a security stir in the past weeks leading to embassy closures and evacuation of personnel in Yemen.
Read moreWhat implication has the Arab Spring had on jihadist movements in northern Africa? Daveed Gartenstein-Ross looks at regional developments and the relationship between countries of dawa (missionary work) and lands of jihad.
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Associate Fellow Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross examines the activities, organisation and possible future of Tunisia's largest salafi jihadist organisation: Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia (AST).
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This Commentary analyses the exodus of young European jihadists that are inundating Western intelligence services.
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The strategy of the most prominent jihadist organisation in Tunisia, Ansar-al-Sharia Tunisia (AST), has thus far mainly focussed on dawa (missionary work) instead of violent acts.
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Last week's decision against the extradition of Muslim cleric Abu Qatada in the UK was a controversial one. What does the case mean for evidence obtained by torture, human rights, extradition and anticipatory justice?
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In this Commentary, former Director Peter Knoope argues that the shooting of Malala Yousafzai by the Pakistani Taliban further decreases its legitimacy.
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In recent years commentators have begun to suggest that Africa will be the next haven for al Qaeda, with al Shabaab, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram all having affiliations with al Qaeda in varying degrees.
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In his statement, US President Barack Obama stipulated that the targeted operation he authorised was aimed at bringing Osama bin Laden “to justice”.
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Shaykh Anwar Al-Awlaki in the Islamist Glossy "Inspire Magazine", is on the defence, trying desperately to convince his readers – and probably himself – of his interpretation of the events unfolding.
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The popular uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East are showing us, professionals involved in the field of counter-terrorism, and our politicians the best way forward in our struggle against political violence.
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There is one profound conclusion missing in most of the news reports and expert opinions analysing the political, social and/or historical reasons for and consequences of the events taking place in Egypt and Tunisia.
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In the first ICCT Commentary, Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker reflects upon the conclusions by Insurance Company Aon that counter-terrorism efforts have caused a decrease in the global terrorism threat level.
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